Technology Making Polling More Difficult

When I look back on this election, two key things will stick out in my mind: how muddy it was and how much polling was done. I cannot remember an election when we’ve ever more anxiously waited with bated breath for each new poll result, especially in the case of the United States Senate race in West Virginia.

But with each new poll there seems to be more and more inaccuracies due to sample flaws, the nature of who conducts the poll (Orion Strategies ring a bell), etc...

Recently a tweep and I were discussing inaccuracies in current polling and how technology is making the business of polling increasingly difficult. How so? Lots of people are trading their landlines for mobile devices, which by law cannot be randomly called. Because of new phone technologies like Vonage, Yahoo Phone, and Magic-Jack people are retaining older area codes, making it harder to get a scientific sample. While these problems were prevalent two years ago, they’ve significantly increased during this election cycle, and could lead to across the board inaccuracies.

This is extremely concerning to this stiletto-clad, 25-year old because it could undercount the amount of young people who turn out to vote this midterm election.

If only polling could be conducted through mobile devices... But it sort of already is.

Today’s digital culture provides a platform for debate, drawing instant feedback from blogs or Facebook chats. The culture demands transparency, along with a desire to engage in heated discussions as opposed to the stonewalling we commonly see on TV.

Social media are revolutionizing the way politicians campaign, increasing candidate and constituent relationships through conversation and providing instant feedback that cannot be achieved from traditional polling.

Is social media the next generation of polling?

The Watergate of 2010

In yesterday’s New York Times, Jill Abramson juxtaposed the Watergate scandals of 1972 compared to the General Election of 2010.

According to Abramson, “...the fund-raising practices that earned people convictions in Watergate...are back in a different form in 2010.”

I couldn’t agree more, but there’s one big difference between 1972 and today: legality. It’s perfectly legal to receive secret campaign cash. While contributors cannot donate specifically to candidates, they can donate to campaigns that directly support or attack candidates. I’m sure the GOP is thanking the Supreme Court every day for this, as they are the party significantly taking advantage of this law.

I feel full disclosure of campaign contributions greatly increases transparency and really shows what kind of person a candidate is. Voters need to know who is funding political campaigns, because buying seats in government is unethical and unacceptable.

The scariest thing? Think of how many millions are being spent on campaigns now... it’s just setting the stage for 2012.

Manchin’s Campaign: Recommendations from the Politico in Stilettos

I believe it was Mic Jagger who said, “You can let yourself go, just as long as you can bring yourself back.” The United States Senate campaign between Manchin and Raese has many politicos across the nation wondering if Manchin can bring himself back in and come out on top.

It’s without question that his campaign has made mistakes, and this Politico in Stilettos is not only learning from those mistakes, but moreover trying to learn how to spin them and come out on top. But how to you spin the GOP’s “rubber stamp for Obama” angle?

Simple. You rebrand Manchin’s relationship with Obama, with a little help from Ringo. Who do you go to for advice? Who do you trust? Who helps you in times of need?

“Oh I get by with a little help from my friends...”

Manchin is a friend of Obama, someone who can most effectively teach him about the very special needs of our very unique wild, wonderful West Virginia. Obama surrounds himself with friends, meaning people he respects and trusts. I’m sure he doesn’t trust someone who slams everything the man has or hasn’t accomplished since he ran for office. Would you give someone the time of day if all they told you was how wrong you were? I know I wouldn’t. We all know Manchin is a “Friend of Coal” and, especially based on some of the GOP’s ads right now, he’s a friend of Obama. Thus, Manchin is the man who can make Obama a friend of coal.

Next problem: NRSC’s ad about “DC Joe”, how do you spin that?

Joe Manchin will not be the “DC Joe” the GOP has attempted to brand him as. Rather, he’s West Virginia’s Joe. Nobody knows West Virginia’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats like a full-time West Virginian. How many similarities does West Virginia have in common with Florida? As a legislator and as Governor, Manchin has been there for the people of West Virginia, and he will continue to be there because he’s West Virginia’s Joe.

If I had a hand in his campaign, these are what I’d propose to do on TV with corresponding direct mail and social media. But, that’s me.

Yachts, marble driveways, who cares?

So John Raese has a marble driveway and Joe Manchin has a yacht. It’s not the possessions a candidate has that matter, and I really wish political campaigns would quit slamming candidates for superficial things like what kind of cars they drive or how nice their private planes are. That’s not what it’s about!!

What really matters is what candidate will best represent the people and how they have contributed to their state and the people they would represent if elected. Just because a candidate pulls into a marble driveway at his second home or chooses to take his grandchildren on a boat trip does not mean he cannot relate to the people of West Virginia. What matters is humility, not what you go home to versus what I go home to. It’s what kind of person a candidate is inside, and what they will do to move our great state forward.

How about checking into how many charities candidates have donated to? Has anyone in West Virginia pulled a Bill Gates and donated a million dollars to education? Now that would be a great positive campaign ad!

Voters, November 2nd, and Manchin

It’s true that people rarely learn from elections, but there’s something brewing out there in the minds of likely voters that repudiates this statement. America has always been a solid nation, one of economic growth and stability, the land of the free and the home of the brave. But that’s not the sentiment felt across the nation right now. The longest serving senator in Delaware was replaced by a Sarah Palin prodigy, cementing the anti-establishment sentiment among voters all over America.

When did this anti-establishment feeling really begin (in the last few years)? In my opinion, it all began during the Presidential Election of 2008. Obama’s campaign strategists developed a campaign that focused its efforts on mobilizing the number one unlikely voter base: the youngsters. How’d the do it so successfully?

Here’s my shoe box-sized summation; Generation Y is an ensemble from an entirely new breed of designers, and we’re not easily understood by anyone but ourselves because we’re anything but an establishment. We’ve lived through the Oklahoma City bombings, Sesame Street, September 11th, when MTV actually played music videos, Desert Storm, globalization, and the birth of the interconnected digital world we refer to as the “Internet.” This digital development connected us youngsters not only across the nation, but across the globe. Suddenly, we’re sharing our lives via Facebook and getting jobs by posting resumes on LinkedIn. We’re constantly connected to our phones and to each other, because we like to unabashedly share our life experiences with the world. Since we share in our peers joys and sorrows, we’ve developed an acute sense of camaraderie and tenacious teamwork. One might say that all this life experience sharing with hundreds and thousands of people across the globe means we crave attention, and they’d be right. Gen Y’ers do crave attention, but it’s the right kind of attention we crave, such as feedback at work, from our beloved families, and from our peers. We crave this attention and feedback because we’re achievement-oriented. We’re a happy generation, one of hope, civic-mindedness, and we fall head over stilettos in love with the possibility of making a real difference we can see and feel.

What the Obama campaign did was take the ideals of Generation Y and base their campaign around it, and it worked. Two years later, most young folks have not altered their views of the President, but it might not necessarily have been Obama they fell in love with, moreover I strongly believe it was the chance we could actually be involved in making a difference, in the power of an active democracy.

Playing devil’s advocate for just a second, younger generations have not had nearly the experience with government that our parents and grandparents have. We don’t even come into contact with the government until we go get a driver’s license, so we’re more idealistic because we’ve yet to experience what our predecessors have. And it’s this experience that’s turned the most likely voters against the “DC establishment.” This is why the Palin prodigy won in Delaware, and since Manchin started running an attack ad against Raese, I cannot help but think his tracking polls must have been pretty close to Rasmussen’s results.

How do we Democrats capitalize on this anti-establishment sentiment among our likely voters? Where’s there’s a will, there’s a way. And when asked how well we Democrats work under pressure, I always reply, “Pressure makes diamonds.”

Manchin v. Raese: Psychology behind the ads

United States Senate candidate Joe Manchin released his first TV spot to counter opponent John Raese’s accusations. But was Manchin’s spot effective?

Believe it or not, the Democratic and Republican parties produce campaign ads that appeal to different sections of your brian. Your brain has a part called the cerebral cortex, which takes up about 80% of our entire brain mass. The area from behind your eyes and about a couple inches past the top of your forehead is called the prefrontal cortex. This section is then divided into two parts; the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (which runs toward the top and sides of the prefrontal cortex), and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (which runs behind the eyes and approximately half way up the forehead).

The dorsolateral prefrontal cortex is active when we make conscious decisions, as well as consciously remembering phone numbers or what to pick up at the grocery store, conducting cost/benefit analysis, and reasoning. Traditionally, Democratic campaign ads target this section of the brain. In Manchin’s ad, he’s speaking directly to you in a rational manner, hoping you’ll make the rational choice when you go to the polls on November 2nd. But, if viewers are just flipping the channels and aren’t in a state of mind to make a conscious decision, this ad becomes ineffective.

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex is positioned around where the amygdala is located in the brain, which is heavily involved in the emotional processes we go through as humans. Other mental processes the ventromedial prefrontal cortex is involved with include; emotional and social intelligence, moral functioning, linking emotions with thoughts, like when emotions guide the decisions we make. Raese’s TV spot links Manchin’s name with President Obama’s, which arouses negative feelings inside voters. Also, the background is of High Street in Morgantown, the number one growing area in wild, wonderful West Virginia right now.

While subconsciously manipulating voters’ minds through campaign psychology is extremely unethical, I don’t see it stopping any time soon

Monday Morning Reality Check: Why Most likely Voters Won’t Vote For You

T-minus 26 days until West Virginia holds its Very Special Primary. Candidates are most likely targeting “most likely” voters, meaning West Virginia residents who have voted in the past two midterm elections. They’ve most likely polled and know the issues and messages that work with this group, and that’s what they’re banking on. Good strategy, right? You’re most likely wrong.

“Most likely” voters just may not be the “most likely” people to punch the hole next to your name on the ballot. Why not? What can you, as a candidate, do to improve the quality of life for someone’s grandmother in the nursing home? How much can your efforts improve our statewide and/or national economy that my 87 year-old Grandpa will live to see? Why would my parents vote for you if you’re most likely going to continue increasing our national debt which my generation, and those after me, will be paying off? What proactive approach are you taking to the future of coal and energy in West Virginia so tomorrow’s generations of mountain state residents have good paying jobs?

Reality check: You, most likely, cannot do anything to significantly improve the quality of life for my grandparents, and probably not my parents. Campaigning to them via :60 TV spots is great, sending direct mail to my Uncle Ed is wonderful, my Dad will listen to your radio spot while he’s busy wiring a house, but in the end, you’re missing the number one group you need to be targeting: my generation.

“Have you heard of [Candidate X?] What do you think about him/her?” are the words my Grandpa asks me every election cycle. If I wasn’t so into politics, I wouldn’t know who at least 75% of the candidates running for office are. Why not? Because candidates and campaigns seem to forget that my generation exists. No, we typically don’t vote, but that’s only because you candidates most likely forgot to engage us. How can I know who you are unless you target campaign efforts to where I am most often? And where is that you might ask? Online.

My grandparents and parents are not selfish people, they’re pragmatic, realistic, forward-thinking individuals who are concerned about the well-being of those they will one day leave behind. They want to cast their vote for someone who will strive to build a more solid foundation for my generation and those after mine. So when I don’t know who you are or why you’re running for office, my Grandpa most likely won’t vote for you.

You most likely don’t understand us, and we most likely won’t have the same perspective, the same needs, or even the same values as so-called most likely voters, but believe me, my generation would love to be more involved in local, statewide, and national politics. And we’re getting more involved, with or without you.

According to Ryan White and T.J. Meadows, “Generation Charleston, a group whose mission is to attract and retain young talent in the Charleston area, firmly believes that the involvement of young leaders in politics is integral to the future success of our state and nation. ...Young leaders can and will bring new energy to a political landscape that has become increasingly partisan and can help create an environment of cooperation that seems to be rarer with each issue being discussed,” (read more in @wvgazette: http://bit.ly/946TGh).

I thought a certain soon-to-be Senator understood this when he talked about organizing the “Governor’s Council of Young Professionals” in his 2010 State of the State speech, (http://www.wvgov.org/sec.aspx?id=118). It seems older generations of politicians like to talk about involving the youth and setting the stage for a solid tomorrow, but when you don’t take time to ask us what we want, why we want it, and how we would go about getting it, your words will soon fall on deaf ears. And when our grandparents and parents ask us what we think, we “most likely” won’t know you and all three generations will be “most likely” to vote for someone else.

Governor “Soprano” is in hair and makeup.... Lights, Camera, Action!

When does the film crew arrive? John Raese decides he’s running for against Rep. Shelley Moore Capito who isn’t officially running in an election that technically doesn’t exist yet. And what’s more? Raese calls Governor Joe Manchin (@JoeManchinWV for all you tweeters) “Governor Soprano!” The second after I finished reading Ry RIvard’s (@ryrivard)article ( http://j.mp/cSQXE4) in the Daily Mail (@charleywest), I hear that Aaron Sorkin is directing a film about John Edwards! (I just picked up Andrew Young's The Politician: An Insider's Account of John Edwards's Pursuit of the Presidency and the Scandal That Brought Him Down.)

My idea of a dramatic, addicting reality show or just a TV show? West Virginia politics. If I was a producer looking for a hit new show, I’d do a reality show about Governor Joe Manchin, especially right now with everything that’s going on with Byrd’s succession and the possibility of a special election for governor. Heck, it felt like I was at a Red Carpet event during Judge Carrie Webster’s fundraiser with all the cameras, reporters, and flashing lights! I couldn’t seem to find the red carpet or a background for the standard social event paparazzi pictures though. Thinking back, Governor Manchin really has tried to boost the “celeb image” of his position; remodeling the Governor’s Manchin, that big white party tent that Phil Kabler never gets to go to (maybe he finally will when Manchin is in DC). Also, Governor Manchin and the boob tube were meant for each other; he’s easy on the eyes, articulate, and has that Clinton-esque charisma... And all eyes will be on him this afternoon at 2pm as he announces his appointee for Senator Byrd’s seat (Ahem, Carte Goodwin).

And one other point, while sitting in the Senate (@wvsenate) Judiciary meeting yesterday, I noticed only three senators in that meeting have twitter accounts: @Senator_Chafin, @Mike_Oliverio, and @JeffKessler4Gov).

Digital, Youth and Politics: The Week's Hottest Moves : By Lauren DeLisa Coleman

The times, they are a changin'. Voices previously a bit off the radar are gaining more and more visibility thanks to digital platforms. If you missed the MSNBC segment on the announcement of a new series on Hip Hop and politics, definitely check it out on line. NBC's The Grio and allhiphop.com have come together to create what seems to be one of the most extensive and cool looks at hip hop culture's influence on politics, almost since the culture's beginning. Entitled Hip Hop & Politics: From the Beat to the Ballot, the on-line series sizzles with info that any and all policy makers looking to connect better with influential constituents (who also happen to be those who out-index across digital media usage) should watch. Viewing this web series could only help politicians to become more savvy when interfacing with consultants they should be bringing on to specifically target this demo and convey messages to them across on-line and mobile phone platforms.

And in the spirit of further converging politics with digital platforms and youth culture, this writer is joining forces with political consultant Cartney McCracken to create a new Follow Friday series on Twitter. Beginning June 18, 2010 follow either @mediaempress or @CartneyWV to jump onto the #FFRed, #FFBlue, #FFWhite series. The first two will obviously offer Twitter handles of policy makers who correspond to their party color. #FFWhite will feature the Twitter handles of Independents as well those related to the political scene from consultants to journalists and more.

"I feel social media has eclipsed traditional media when it comes to connecting with our government. And connecting is the key world. We started #FFwhite, #FFblue, and #FFred to connect tweeps across the nation, and across the world, with elected officials and with those who are in the political arena. We're not just creating a list for people to follow, we're leveraging the influence of constituents on their government. We're proactively championing more collaboration between the public and it's government," explains Cartney.

Watch for an interesting mash-up of people.

There you have it, two unexpected yet welcome moves as we watch politics further converge with pop culture and digital tech.

Enjoy!

Website: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lauren-coleman/digital-youth-and-politic_b_616553.html